关键词: 人工智能, 技术进步, 工业机器人, 制造业, 人口老龄化, 劳动力

Abstract: Many countries and regions, including China, are facing the labor gap caused by population aging. The waning of the "demographic dividend" raises concerns about sustainability. Digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and industrial robots are believed to be able to replace labor to some extent. At present, the analysis of the replacement of labor force by advanced technology represented by industrial robots in the manufacturing industry focuses on the present situation and takes less consideration of the future. The scale of industrial robots in the future has not been taken into account, on the other hand, nor does it take into account the extent to which industrial robots can fill the labor gap in an aging population. Therefore, this study considers the changes in the scale of industrial robots and the extent to which the labor gap caused by the gradual decline of the working-age population in the context of population aging can be made up by the development of industrial robots.
Firstly, the relationship between annual sales of industrial robots and labor skill ratio (LSR) in China was analyzed by regression method, and the demand and substitution effects of industrial robot development on different skilled labor forces were obtained. Secondly, according to the development scenarios of industrial robots in Germany, the United States and South Korea, the change of industrial robot scale in each scenario up to 2035 was calculated. Thirdly, based on this, the scale of unskilled labor force affected by the development of industrial robots in the future can be calculated. Finally, by analyzing the relationship between the size of unskilled labor force replaced by industrial robots and the labor gap related to population aging under different development scenarios of industrial robots, the influence of artificial intelligence on the labor gap and the support for sustainable economic development under the background of population aging are illustrated.
The results show that, first of all, similar to previous studies, the size of replaced unskilled labor force has a significant positive correlation with the annual sales volume of industrial robots. Secondly, according to the simulation results, the scale of unskilled labor force replaced by the three scenarios will increase during 2020—2035 as the scale of industrial robots continues to increase. Finally, industrial robots based on a higher scenario of peak growth will replace more than 35 million workers in 2030-2034. The simulation results suggest that the gap in the labor force associated with an aging population over the same period of time can be almost completely filled.
The research shows that under the current population policy, the aging related labor gap will lead to the gradual increase of the size of the retired population. However, no matter in which scenario the scale of industrial robots grows, unskilled labor can be replaced, so as to narrow this gap as far as possible to a certain extent.
Therefore, it is necessary to encourage industrial automation and intelligent transformation and upgrading, and increase the use of industrial robots. The training of workers who have been transferred to new posts should be strengthened to realize the appreciation of human capital. Meanwhile, it is necessary to accelerate the localization and high-end level of industrial robots to create more jobs. So as to reduce the impact of industrial robot development on labor force, and finally achieve sustainable economic growth. In the future, it is necessary to obtain more detailed industrial robot scale and skilled labor force data by industry, and adjust the research results according to the changes of retirement policy.

Key words: artificial intelligence, technological progress, industrial robots, manufacturing, population aging, labor force